Companies are borrowing again… and that means the economy is in a far better shape. Here’s why

From the desk of Miles Everson:

Curious?

Keep reading below!

For the past few years, a missing puzzle piece has kept the market outlook mixed.

Banks tightened lending standards back in 2023. At the same time, the market kept climbing, raising valuations and sentiment.

Those headwinds have eased in recent months, and valuations and sentiment have cooled. That change can be partly attributed to earnings growth and partly due to volatility from America’s conflict with Iran.

However, even though banks were willing to lend, companies weren’t borrowing.

Commercial and industrial (C&I) lending wasn’t showing much momentum.

That’s important because C&I loans fuel corporate growth. They finance day-to-day operations and expansion projects, like today’s manufacturing plants and data centers.

C&I loans are also known as a “leading indicator.” When they rise, banks are willing to lend and businesses are eager to borrow. That combination means credit is flowing into the economy.

In other words, today’s higher borrowing leads to tomorrow’s higher earnings.

When C&I lending stalls, it sends the opposite message. Companies may still be profitable, but they’re saving cash rather than investing in growth.

That lag was one of the biggest reasons why Rob Spivey , Director of Research of Valens Research and Altimetry Financial Research and his team, were cautious earlier in this cycle.

Before the pandemic, C&I loans peaked at roughly USD 2.4 trillion. Lending briefly spiked above USD 3 trillion in 2020. However, totals quickly pulled back to roughly USD 2.8 trillion for much of 2023 and 2024.

Then, after the 2024 presidential election, loan totals dipped. While it wasn’t a disaster, it showed corporate America was still hesitant.

Fast forward to today, C&I lending has started Fast forward to today, C&I lending has started climbing again despite tariffs and geopolitical volatility. As of April 2026, loan totals are nearing USD 2.9 trillion—the highest level outside the pandemic spike.

Unlike 2020, this isn’t emergency borrowing; it’s borrowing to expand … and it’s sustainable.

Said simply, businesses are investing in projects again, and we can see this in the chart below.

This spending signal indicates companies are borrowing today because they expect growth tomorrow.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the market will move in an orderly fashion.

Investors will still worry about geopolitics and whatever news dominates the week. However, if businesses keep borrowing and banks keep lending, it signals that the U.S. economy is a lot stronger than the headlines suggest.

The key takeaway?

Corporate America is borrowing again… and that means companies are in growth mode.

Hope you’ve found this week’s insights interesting and helpful.

Stay tuned for next Wednesday’s The Independent Investor!

Before crises become headlines, they tend to fade quietly into the background…

Learn more about this debt time bomb in next week’s article!