Are you worried that a bear market is unfolding? This global CEO shows why that isn’t the case.

From the desk of Miles Everson:

Investing has given many individuals the ability to attain financial security and independence for decades.

That’s why every Wednesday, I talk about investing in the hopes of helping and inspiring readers to build their wealth through this activity.

In today’s  “The Independent Investor,”  we’ll talk about an unusual event that’s playing out in the market.

Curious?

Keep reading below!

Are you worried that a bear market is unfolding? This global CEO shows why that isn’t the case.

Something unusual just unfolded in the market…

You see, stocks got cheaper  without  breaking the economy.

Yes, you got that right.  Stocks got cheaper  in the midst of a choppy environment brought about by geopolitical tensions in the past few months.

Headlines out of the Middle East have driven volatility higher, pushing investors to adopt a defensive stance as a result.

Professor Joel Litman , Chairman and CEO of  Valens Research  and Chief Investment Officer of  Altimetry Financial Research  argued that oil would dictate the market's next move. That remains true.

However, there’s no way of knowing how the Iran conflict will play out. So far, the most important market signal is that oil has fallen from recent highs.

After peaking around USD 120 per barrel following the fighting, Brent crude oil prices (the international standard) are hovering between USD 105 to USD 110 per barrel, well below the levels that would drive a recession.

So, instead of worrying about oil, which seems to have largely stabilized, Professor Litman says we should turn our attention to  what’s actually changing.

Nearly every company has reported earnings for 2025. Professor Litman and his team have run those results through the Uniform Accounting framework.

That gives us a clearer starting point for 2026 expectations… and the picture is stronger than many investors realize.

Valuations were already decent. The forward Uniform price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was roughly 24x last year—in line with expectations given today's level of corporate taxes, inflation, and earnings growth.

Based on 2025 results, roughly 19% earnings growth is expected in 2026, well above the corporate average growth of 10%. Profits are still accelerating, companies continue to spend and invest, and the earnings engine behind this bull market is chugging along.

Thanks to those stronger earnings expectations, Professor Litman says the forward Uniform P/E ratio has fallen below 20.

That's low for a market with solid profit growth, a supportive tax backdrop, and inflation levels that—outside of energy—remains manageable.

Professor Litman emphasizes that this is the part investors are missing: 

That’s the exact setup right now… and it’s ideal for today’s market.

Despite improving fundamentals, sentiment hasn't caught up. The market is still reacting to March's Iran-driven volatility. That said, earnings growth is strong and continues to accelerate.

That can keep powering the market forward. Combined with lower valuations, Professor Litman says investors are given a good buying opportunity.

There may still be some near-term headline risk from the Middle East. However, he and his team remain bullish.

In other words, this isn’t what the start of a bear market looks like.

Hope you’ve found this week’s insights interesting and helpful.

Stay tuned for next Wednesday’s The Independent Investor!

In hindsight, it’s easy to forget just how intense the pressure once felt.

Learn more about  why the Fed holds the line against Washington  in next week’s article!